Snapshots #66: Climate Migrations

March 9, 2023

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The paths we take define our history and dictate our future, like our (very distant) ancestors’ evolution from ocean to land, the migration from Africa to every corner of the globe, and the trading empires built along the Silk Road. The migratory routes that brought us to where we stand today were largely paved by opportunity. But cracks are forming. And in the 21st century, these paths may be driven by environmental pressures. Our migrations won’t just be a steady march forwards, but also a messy, tangled scramble uphill.

Climate change could displace 3 billion people by 2100. Everything from our bodies to our businesses have evolved to live within a narrow band of temperature, and as this band shifts across the planet so must we. Seas will rise, cities will warm, permafrost will thaw, islands will disappear, and humans will move and adapt. We’re not going to pretend to know how this future will unfold entirely. But it’s easy to see that the scale and complexity of this migration will be unprecedented. The task of moving and accommodating Earth’s populations could rival that of mitigating climate change itself.

Defining climate migrations is tricky. They often intersect with and exacerbate other issues like resource scarcity and regional conflict. But experts have identified certain patterns that can be anticipated — and in many cases are already underway. Broadly speaking, people will migrate northwards from the equator, upwards from low-elevation areas, and inwards from coasts. The effects will not be uniform, but they will be felt everywhere.

Two major drivers of climate migrations are rising temperatures and encroaching oceans. Sea level rise is particularly troubling as it has a latent effect: even if governments hit ambitious emissions reductions today, the oceans are set to rise for centuries to come. In other words, we can smash the brakes now, but the momentum is going to slam us into the dashboard anyways. With a minimum amount of change locked in, many cities must find ways to adapt. Especially those with an eroding coastline perched between an ocean and river, like Senegal’s Saint-Louis.

Sea level rise is an existential threat to many island nations, and as such, they’re often considered to be the front lines of climate change. The government of Fiji is already relocating scores of vulnerable villages. But not every country has the option of scrambling to higher ground. The 33 islands of Kiribati have an average elevation under 6 feet (1.8 meters). And with a projected 2–3.6 feet (0.6–1.1 meters) of sea level rise by 2100, prospects for its 100,000+ residents are narrow.

The countries that contributed least to the climate crisis are often the ones most vulnerable. But designating areas as “front lines” implies a neatly ordered threat with distinct lines of battle. And climate change is anything but. Every country will be impacted differently. Some surely worse than others, but none will be left off the hook. Changing dynamics in ocean circulation is causing an uneven spread in sea level rise, as reported by The Washington Post. Satellites are picking up hot spots in certain areas. And one of these, 250 miles off the coast of Virginia, is causing the tides to rise faster here than other areas along the East Coast of the US.

Rising temperatures could also render large swathes of the globe uninhabitable. By 2070, billions of people could be living in a “barely viable hot zone.” Decreased rainfall, drought, and desertification may turn arable land unproductive and push people to cooler regions. And scorching heat waves could have deadly consequences, especially in urban heat islands — metropolitan areas hotter than their rural surroundings. Heat waves and increasing temperatures may be especially pronounced in cities without much shade or vegetation.

Some countries stand to gain from climate change. Rising temperatures may push already hot equatorial countries past the precipice of livability but bring Arctic areas into the habitable band. Global warming has already increased Sweden’s per capita GDP by 25% and is turning huge portions of eastern Russia arable. Nuuk, the capital of Greenland, is expecting significant growth. Melting ice is presenting new economic opportunities for residents. And in a reminder that what affects us also affects animal life, warmer ocean water has induced fish migrations to Greenland’s fjords and boosted fishing prospects.

The anticipated migration north won’t be uniform either. For the people of Newtok, Alaska, the ground beneath their feet is giving way. The village is in the process of being relocated after decades of thawing permafrost, flooding, and sinking homes. Yet less than 500 miles away, the Alaskan Kodiak Island is considered least at risk of climate events, according to a 2017 EPA study. Even within one — albeit large — state, the anticipated effects of these global changes will have drastically different outcomes.

Pair these global movements with projected population growth, existing challenges to migration policies, and potential tipping points. The challenges ahead certainly appear formidable. But consider that in this great reshuffling of people is also an opportunity to reshuffle our relationship to land and national borders, to value sea walls over border walls, and reimagine the systems that led to this crisis in the first place.

All imagery Ⓒ 2023 Planet Labs PBC

Editor: Ryder Kimball | Images: Ryder Kimball, Robert Simmon, Max Borrmann, and Julian Peschel